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Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate

The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.

Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually lose but each side has got something to acquire from the other's positions."

Appeal for Wider Debate

Westminster must participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."